The Oscars 2026 Best Picture Race Is Already Over

The 2026 Oscars are still over three months away from declaring any winners, but the Best Picture race is already wrapped up. Now that every major release of 2025 has either come out or been screened, the group of titles contending for the top prize at the 98th Academy Awards has really taken shape thanks to various precursor awards.

Heading into this portion of the season, Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another was positioned as a strong frontrunner. The acclaimed film still had some competition, though, with Chloé Zhao's Hamnet, Ryan Coogler's Sinners, Joachim Trier's Sentimental Value, Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme, and Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein among the titles vying for support.

With so much time to go, there's a lot of time for each film's case to increase or decrease, or for other contenders to emerge stronger than anticipated. Yet, other titles jockeying to become the Academy's favorite appears unnecessary. One Battle After Another has already locked up its Best Picture win by all accounts.

One Battle After Another Has Had Unprecedented Awards Season Success, Making It The Undisputed Choice For Best Picture

Once One Battle After Another's reviews came out, it was abundantly clear that the movie would be well represented throughout awards season as critics groups and other notable precursor ceremonies named their best of the year. But what it's managed to do in a short amount of time at the start of the season is remarkable.

In the last three days, One Battle After Another has won Best Feature at the Gotham Awards, Best Film from the New York Film Critics Circle, and Best Film from the National Board of Review.

Each of those wins is notable for the Best Picture race, historically speaking. Six of 21 winners at the Gothams went on to win the Oscar; 14 of them got at least a nomination. 22 of the NBR winners have matched the Academy's vote out of 93 times. NYFCC has lined up with the Best Picture winner 32 times since 1935.

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