Experts name the top pandemic threat

Ask infectious disease specialists what keeps them awake at night, and the answer might surprise you. It isn't some jungle fever or a mysterious new pathogen lurking in the shadows. The villain most likely to trigger the next global health emergency has been with us all along.

A survey of 187 experts from 57 countries revealed that 57 percent ranked influenza as the pathogen with the highest pandemic potential. The VACCELERATE Consortium gathered these responses and presented the findings at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases Global Congress in Barcelona.

What makes the flu so dangerous is its relentless ability to reinvent itself. The virus mutates constantly, shuffling its genetic deck with each passing season. That's why last year's vaccine won't protect you this year and why you can catch the flu repeatedly throughout your life.

"Each winter we have an influenza season. One could say that this means that every winter there are little pandemics," explained Dr. Jon Salmanton-García, who commented on the findings.

Those seasonal waves stay manageable because circulating strains remain relatively mild. The real fear is what happens when that changes.

Current flu strains spread widely but lack the punch to overwhelm healthcare systems. Vaccines, antivirals, and natural immunity from prior infections help contain the damage.

But influenza doesn't play by fixed rules. Viruses swap genetic material when different strains infect the same host. A single mutation could produce something far more lethal than anything our immune systems have encountered.

"The different strains are not virulent enough," Dr. Salmanton-García noted. "Yet, every season the strains involved change. In case a new strain becomes more virulent, this control could be lost."

Following influenza on the worry list came Disease X, a placeholder term health officials use for pathogens that don't yet exist. Twenty-one percent of respondents ranked this unknown thr